We all need a secure and a safe place to live. Water, food and shelter are the baselines of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. One fundamental realization I’ve learned during our social distancing experience has been how important the home is. Your environment is paramount to your emotional, psychological, mental and even spiritual health. So how has COVID-19 impacted real estate? Where were we at a month ago? Where are we now? Where will we go?
Dr. Dan Hartman is the director of Integrated Development for Global Health at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation here in Seattle, and in this episode of the Rise Seattle podcast, Dan helps us to better understand the ever-evolving situation surrounding COVID-19.
Dan and podcast host Tyler Davis Jones chat via Zoom, and Dan answers questions like:
As a physician trained in internal medicine and pulmonary critical care, Dan now works with a highly talented team in product development assisting the different disease area teams at the foundation.
Dan starts off the episode explaining some of the science behind SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (aka COVID-19):
“It’s very different than the flu… the way it's transmitted is about 2 - 3 times easier than the flu, AND it’s about 10 - 20 times more deadly,” he shares. “When you combine those 2 things together, that’s when you start seeing healthcare systems start to be crushed under the weight of this particular disease.”
As far as what the U.S. healthcare system is experiencing right now, Dan has heard from friends who still work in hospitals who are experiencing firsthand everything that’s been happening. In the past couple of weeks, COVID-19 has been hitting different parts of the country in waves, and in some places, the majority of patients that are coming into a hospital have COVID-19. Some first responders are also reporting that 90 - 100% of people they’re helping are all dealing with COVID-19.
While those who need intervention from the healthcare system are in the minority of cases, it’s still enough that in many places, it’s completely overwhelming the healthcare system. Many people can stay at home and get better, but the people who are seeking healthcare are the ones who are experiencing serious respiratory symptoms such as shortness of breath.
And of course, there are many people who are pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic but aren’t aware of it.
“What we’re learning is there are a significant number of people who are walking around without symptoms, and that’s both good and bad,” shares Dan. “It’s good that they're not having symptoms, it’s bad that they’re walking around spreading it.”
COVID-19 has a much longer incubation time than the flu, making the spread even more likely.
“I think it was a really good idea to start to request that people would wear masks if they’re going outside and are going to be close to people,” Dan says.
TREATMENT FOR COVID-19
“It’s important for people to understand that there’s no specific therapy to treat SARS-CoV-2 and it’s really just supportive care,” Dan says. There's a lot of misinformation out there right now, and there have been many reports that specific treatments are helping people get better. But anecdotal success stories are much different than actual studies.
“If you’re on a ventilator in an ICU your probability of getting off is only around 20%. And almost all of those people are getting these drugs,” Dan shares. The drugs that Dan is referring to cover a wide range of potential treatments; if a patient is in serious decline, doctors are using all of the knowledge and tools that they currently have to try their best to treat their patients. Sometimes their methods work, and sometimes they don’t.
Of course, this is not a long-term strategy, and the Gates Foundation is actively working on treatment options.
“We’re working on 10 to 15 different products that could work in this area,” shares Dan.
“It’s great working with two humanitarians like Bill and Melinda, and they jumped into this just like we jumped into Ebola,” says Dan. “For the pandemic we’re currently in the middle of—or even at the beginning of—the response was quick, and we’ve set up all kinds of different things. We have like 20 different workstreams going on looking at a whole host of different signs whether it's therapeutics, diagnostic, vaccines, the [treatments] you’ve mentioned.”
The Gates Foundation is especially focused on how they can help low-income countries deal with this in the near future. Dan paints a picture of what COVID-19 will look like in different low-income countries with fewer resources, and for many, the situation will be much more dire.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
“I think Seattle has done a really good job in terms of trying to control this. We were the first city to really have to deal with this,” shares Dan.
But while Washington State may be “flattening the curve,” Dan adds that “the delta between where we’re at today and where we need to be is still far.”
Tyler asks what our new norm is. How do we come out of this, and what’s the trajectory? Tyler also wonders if wearing a mask to the grocery store for the rest of our lives is the new normal, or if we just need to do this for the next few months.
Dan thinks the answer is somewhere in the middle. “This does not have an off switch,” he says. “There’s a whole bunch of different things that need to happen before we come out of what I might call Phase 1 and into Phase 2. So we’re going to have to see the number of cases continue to drop dramatically so we know that there’s not ongoing transmission. We’re going to have to have testing widely available.”
That brings up a few big questions: When will we have enough tests? And where did we fail in this situation when it comes to testing?
“I think we failed in just about every way imaginable,” Dan says.
Not only did we not have a great test, but the test we did have wasn’t widely available. Even when a test was available, it became about whether or not you could get the results back in a timely way so you could actually act on the results. Then, even if there are enough tests, they might run out of nasal swabs, for example.
“I think with the information that I have today, life will be different until we get a vaccine, and that’s 12 to 24 months away. How different it will be I think remains to be seen… It will be different, I’m predicting for months, if not years, and restrictions that we’re going to have could change over that time period too.”
“There really isn’t going to be an off switch to this,” Dan adds. “There’s going to be an off ramp. So what we can all do is pay attention to good information and try to adhere to the guidelines. Where am I hearing the best information? Probably people like Dr. Fauci from the NIH… he’s really been spot on with all of his advice.”
At this point, Dan says that experts aren’t positive yet as to whether or not those who have had COVID-19 are immune to getting the virus again. There are some reports that people have had it twice already, but the evidence is not concrete enough to know for sure. Either way, “Everybody should have some type of test of immunity at some point,” he says.
Once many people can return to their normal everyday lives, there are healthcare experts who are saying that people over 60 should probably continue to shelter in place as best they can. “I joke with my parents who are 84, the next time I see you, I’ll be bringing a vaccine,” adds Dan.
With the economy taking the hit that it has, it also has people wondering if the cure is worse than the disease. “I think the disease is probably worse than the cure, but at a certain point, that will flip, and people just have to get out and the economy has to get going again,” Dan shares. “But we have to do it in a smart way and this is where we use the best science that we have today to make those decisions.”
“I’m quite hopeful that we’ll get out of it, I just don’t know what that will look like. And I'm energized to try to be part of a group that’s working on ways to get us out of it. This is something like none of us has ever seen in our lives.”
Dan leaves us with some other great advice that we can all use as we take on the challenging days ahead:
“Be smart, be kind, and be safe.”
Here are a few links that you may find useful:
Dr. Dan Hartman at the Gates Foundation | Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Website | Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Tracker by Johns Hopkins University
Updated regulations in Seattle have more and more homeowners seriously considering the possibility of building a DADU (Detached Accessory Dwelling Unit) on their property.
Homeowners, renters, and the City of Seattle in general all stand to benefit from an increase in DADUs, but all too frequently, the cost of building a DADU can be prohibitively expensive.
Then MyKabin came along.
In this episode of the Rise Seattle Podcast, host Tyler Davis Jones sits down with Rob Hill from MyKabin. This innovative company is focused on building DADUs in the backyards of single-family homes in Seattle, and it all started with a change in regulations that allowed for more desperately needed affordable housing options.
AT THE HEART OF MyKabins
In the podcast episode, Rob and Tyler dive into how MyKabins came to be (the idea came to life over poker) and the problems that MyKabins works to address, the philosophy behind MyKabins, and what the community can expect.
After discussing the many frustrations involved with actually getting a DADU built, MyKabins Co-Founder Clint Jones and fellow Co-Founder Tom Todaro kept coming back to the fact that it was hard to get a straight answer from contractors about how much it would actually cost. They felt the construction industry was outdated with their whole process, and they wanted to figure out if they could put an upfront price on a DADU.
“It doesn’t matter how much you change the laws and make things easy,” says Rob. “If the cost doesn't make sense, nobody’s going to do it.”
After mulling over potential DADU designs and associated costs, they figured out that they *could* put a price point on the cabins, and from that idea, MyKabin was born.
Clint and Tom brought Rob on (Rob is Clint’s cousin) to focus on the sales and marketing side of things:
“I go out there, I educate people,” shares Rob. “We’re a couple of local guys trying to make things better for people and improve the city both from a green standpoint and from a density standpoint, and [creating a] chance for people to make some money too—I mean who doesn’t want to do all of that?”
“Any good product, you shouldn’t have to sell,” he adds. Rob focuses on providing education about MyKabins, and people see the inherent value on their own.
MINDSET SHIFTS & COMMUNITY IMPACT
What changed in the Seattle City Council to allow for these DADUs to be built so freely?
“I think that there was a big shift in the mindset,” shares Rob. He believes that the original rules surrounding DADUs were in place in part due to a fear that if the city opened up the “floodgates” to DADUs, people would take advantage of it. Many people were also afraid of what DADUs would do to their neighborhoods.
Rob calls this “pre-tech boom thinking”—at some point, Seattle had to realize that they desperately needed to address the housing crisis and increase density.
But of course, addressing these problems has not been without their growing pains, and Tyler acknowledges how challenging it has been for many people who have lived here for decades to watch their city transform.
Tyler adds that in a recent interview with Amy King from Square Peg, they talked about how people often discuss how expensive housing is in Seattle, and they discuss low-income housing, but rarely do people address solutions for affordable housing. Tyler adds that DADUs not only offer investment opportunities for people like him (self-described as an “average joe who is still privileged”) who can see outside the current system and can still make money all while benefiting the city.
“To me it’s win, win, win,” adds Tyler.
Rob also adds that adding DADUs to neighborhoods is a slower, more gradual way to add affordable housing to a neighborhood, versus putting in a big new condo building that’s going to have a much more drastic impact. For example, you can add a DADU to a property in Magnolia, and someone who could usually never afford a place in that neighborhood can suddenly afford to live there.
Rob also adds that “This actually helps with true economic diversity in my opinion, because you’re kind of sprinkling these affordable housing units all through the community… and it’s not as intrusive or impactful to the environment with cars and all of that.”
The saying “A rising tide raises all boats” definitely rings true here.
PROCESS & PRICE
So, what does it actually take to have a MyKabin DADU built on your property?
Ok, so let’s say you’re ready to do this. Rob walks us through the process step by step, which usually begins with people entering their address on the MyKabin website to see if their home qualifies to have an DADU built in the first place. Their tool pulls data from county records to give people instant results, and then after the MyKabin team does their own more in-depth assessment, they’ll go visit the property in person.
“With MyKabin our prices are guaranteed and they’re upfront—there are no overages with us,” shares Rob.
“The price on the contract is the price you pay, so if we start digging and there’s a Volkswagen buried in your backyard, it’s on me, it really is. We’re all about the transparency piece.” (Prices are even available on their website.)
And when Rob says “all-inclusive” pricing, he means it—the upfront price includes utility connections, foundation—everything, from the initial site survey to the client finally getting their keys at the end.
In the episode, Rob shares more about:
… and more. Tyler and Rob really dive into the weeds here, so if you’re seriously considering building a DADU, get ready to take notes!
You can learn more about MyKabin here: